2026 Election:Stakeholders validate electoral risk analysis ahead Osun Governorship Election

As preparations gears up for the August 15th 2026 governorship election, the European Union Support Democratic Governance in Nigeria (EUSDGN) throough its Support to the National Peace Committee (NPC) and and its Support Political Parties (SPP), have convened a high-level Stakeholder Validation Forum to review key findings from the Political, Social, and Security Context Analysis, as well as the Compliance Assessment Report (CAR) of political parties.

The forum, held in the three senatorial district of Osun state, brought together representatives of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), security agencies, political parties, the Inter-Party Advisory Council (IPAC), civil society organisations, traditional and religious leaders, and the media to examine emerging risks and strengthen coordination for peaceful and credible elections.

The Stakeholders Validation Forum Programme was held at Adezar Hotel, beside Al-Minsheal Hospital, Ede Road, on Monday, in Ile-Ife.

In her welcoming address, Barr. Asabe Ndahi, the NPC Project Manager, appreciated all participants from Osun East senatorial district, described the forthcoming election as a critical moment for Nigeria’s democracy.

Ndahi said that the 2026 gubernatorial election is more than a state-level exercise, it is a defining test of our collective commitment to democratic integrity and a precursor to the 2027 general elections.

She noted that while the assessments show measurable compliance with electoral procedures, deeper structural challenges remain.

According to her, the findings present a balanced picture,while there has been progress, there are still gaps between formal processes and substantive democratic practice, particularly around political competition, governance disputes, and public trust.

“The validated reports highlight a highly competitive and evolving political landscape in Osun State, shaped by recent political realignments and increasing fragmentation among major political actors.

“Stakeholders observed that although the electoral environment remains relatively stable, underlying tensions, including local governance disputes, concerns around security neutrality, and the growing influence of informal mobilisation networks, pose risks if not proactively addressed.

“Findings from the Compliance Assessment Report further indicate persistent challenges in internal party democracy, with candidate selection processes largely influenced by elite negotiations. The report also underscores limited inclusion of women, youth, and persons with disabilities, alongside concerns regarding transparency and accountability”.She stated.

Ndahi emphasised that the identified risks require deliberate and coordinated responses from all stakeholders.

The NPC Project Manager stated further that the risks they have identified, from unresolved local government issues to patterns of political mobilisation and security concerns, are not insurmountable. However, they require deliberate, coordinated, and timely action.

One of the participants at the forum, Mr Jamiu Ojeleye, stressed the importance of early preventive measures, noted that electoral violence is often rooted in unresolved institutional and political issues.

Ojeleye called for strengthened collaboration, adherence to the Peace Accord framework, and commitment to conflict-sensitive conduct by political actors and their supporters.

The forum concluded with a shared resolve to translate analysis into action through practical measures to mitigate risks, strengthen institutional performance, and support peaceful civic participation across the state.

The National Peace Committee and the Kukah Centre reiterated their commitment to working with stakeholders to ensure that Osun 2026 Governorship Election is peaceful, credible, and inclusive, reflecting the will of the people.

Also, Also, Mr Stephen Klanzama, the Project Officer, the Kukah Centre, said that the forum presented two reports from validation context analysis that finding from political, social, economic and security issue that would have impact in Osun incoming election.

Klanzama added that the forum
review compliance assessment with the level of preparedness of political parties in line with timeline published by INEC.

He said that political parties are adhering to timeline for primary elections and submission of candidates, but in terms of internal processes and procedures of governing political parties, there’s a challenge.

According to him, political parties are follows their own established procedures in terms of nomination of their own candidates and their findings suggest that there’s so much impact of elite dominant and negotiation on party members that make critical decision that can shape the governance of Osun.

The critical stakeholders from political parties, media and INEC were presented finding to correct the anomalies before election.

Mr Fatai Yusuf, the Research Manager, Kukah Centre, who presented “Political Context analysis of Election”, explained that the analysis provides stakeholders particularly National Peace Committee(NPC) with an evidence based for strategic engagement and conflict prevention.

Yusuf expressed the transformed political landscape; the Institutional environment and electoral act 2026; security and conflict dynamics; citizens engagement and the media environment; risks analysis and strategic implications and strategic recommendations for the national Peace committee.

He mentioned four high-priority risk as ; political violence, institutional legitimacy, elite fragmentation and criminal insecurity.

Also, Mr Jide Ojo, the Short-Term Expert, Kukah Centre, talked on”Compliance assessment report; political party preparedness and electoral conduct ahead of 2026 Osun Gubernatorial Election”.

Ojo, who was the Resource Person at the event explained that the assessment focuses on three key points: the conduct of party primaries; adherence to internal democratic norms and promote peaceful elections in Nigeria’s off-cycle electoral cycle.

According to him, the security environment is characterised by low-intensity but persistent incidents of political violence, including intimidation, clashes and targeted attack on party supporters.

The Short-Term Expert stressed that political actors increasingly rely on informal mobilisation networks like: youths groups, transport unions and digital platforms.

He commended the security personnel for their neutral commitment in disseminating their guards to ensure hitch-free election.

Ojo recommended that political parties should strengthen internal democracy, promote transparent and competitive primaries and prioritise issue-based campaigns.

“Security agencies need to adopt proactive, intelligent-led approaches and ensure impartial enforcement of the law.The electoral commission should maintain neutrality, enhance coordination with security institutions.and strengthen voter education.

” Civil society organisations and Peace actors should intensify civil engagement and early warning Initiatives while the media should adopt conflict-sensitive reporting practices.

“The Judiciary also has a critical role in ensuring the timely resolution of electoral disputes to reduce uncertainty”. He suggested.

He stressed that National Peace Committee designed Peace Accord to ensure that normalcy returned between candidates and political partes when called for.

Ojo maintained that NPC compliments the work of police to ensure the peaceful elections and to enforce electoral act,
to prevent violence and whenever there’s need to arrest, investigate and prosecuting those who were involved in electrical violence in Nigeria.

All legacy journalists must take the lead to counter against fake news that can escalate mayhem in the society.